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Responding to the situation of the COVID-19
Following the latest events of the COVID-19 virus crisis, we have determined the responsible course to follow within ULI Mexico...
4 May 2020
Iñaki Laris & Alonso Ayala
Last Wednesday, April 29, we had the opportunity to celebrate the first digital event of ULI Mexico called “What’s Next for Real Estate: A Conversation with Industry Leaders in Mexico” where each of the industry sectors was represented by an asset expert; Federico Martín del Campo for the hotel sector, Jaime Fasja in offices, José Shabot for housing, David O’Donnell in industrial and Jaime de la Garza as retail representative. Lyman Daniels, President of CBRE Mexico, served as moderator of the panel and imposed the flow of the discussion based on 6 surveys open to the public with a clear focus: what will be in store for each of the sectors as a result of the current contingency caused by COVID -19 in Mexico.
If you were forced to buy a portfolio right now, what would you buy? This introductory question revealed the audience’s appetite and was supported by the panelists who agree that the industrial sector is the one that stands out with 55% of the votes, followed by the multi-family industry with 24%, the hotel sector with 14%, retail 5% and a surprising 2% for the corporate niche. David O’Donnell reveals that Mexico has the great advantage of being 20% cheaper door-to-door than China for exports to the United States. On the other hand, Jaime Fasja comments that corporate spaces are going to modify their forms of use. Explains that it is essential that real estate developers moderate their expansion plans to rethink their product and thus offer a greater number of services, greater flexibility, and, above all, adaptability to the new work scheme brought down from the home office and flex spaces.
Pepe Shabot commented that every company must continually recalculate the firm’s business plan due to the high level of uncertainty existing, taking into account the dynamics of demand when expecting unemployment levels of between 11% and 12%, the understanding of the cost inflation dynamics and especially risk mitigation looking for IRRs of 23% to 25% and 500 basis points above what was sought in the past. Like other panel members, he believes there is a great opportunity for well-designed, well-executed, and multi-family multifamilies that offer better levels of service than the informal rental market.
In addition to confirming that the hotel sector has had one of the worst historical performances so far this year, Federico Martin del Campo, who currently serves as Chair of ULI Mexico, believes that the level of investment in Mexico will decrease especially that which operates in dollars but there will be opportunities to buy as long as liquidity levels are taken care of. Another industry that has suffered sharply from the impact of the pandemic is the retail sector, which will strengthen the evolution that had already started around 12 years ago with a consumer-oriented approach. Those who participate in the development of these complexes must orient their business towards the development of experiences by redesigning spaces and balancing customer experience interaction along with the distribution of inventories through cheap ones.
Despite the complexity of the situation, the real estate sector is believed to have a slow but steady recovery. The division of opinions between a recovery in a W and a U form was notorious but they agree that there are still arguments for betting on the sector as long as the approaches explained through the conference are respected and the adjustments that are necessary for each business are made specific. As it has always been, the real estate industry is, and always will be, a sector that has a significant influence on the lives of each one of us. Let’s build future synergies to strengthen the country by promoting good land use.
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